ECB wage tracker points to slightly higher negotiated wage growth in early 2027

SHOTS Desk · 35m ago · Reported

The European Central Bank's headline wage tracker, updated with collective bargaining agreements signed up to mid-October 2026, shows negotiated wage growth of 2.3% for full-year 2026, based on coverage of 46.2% of employees in participating countries. The tracker rises to 2.7% in the second half of 2026 and 2.8% in the first half of 2027, then declines to 2.4% in the third quarter of 2027, where employee coverage is still limited at 23.3%. Compared with the September 2026 release, the headline tracker was revised upward by around 0.1 percentage points on average for the second half of 2026 and first half of 2027. Excluding one-off payments, the tracker averages 2.8% across the first three quarters of 2027, slightly above the 2.6% recorded for full-year 2026, indicating modestly higher permanent negotiated wage growth. The ECB cautioned that the forward-looking component should not be read as a forecast, as it reflects only currently available data from active collective bargaining agr

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